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April 2019 Commodities Market Update

29 April 2019

Commodity Markets Update, April 2019

We are pleased to provide the following commodities update for April, 2019

A Brief Synopsis Of The USDA Prospective Crop Planting Report: 

  • Corn acreage is increasing from 89.1 million acres in 2018 to 92.8 million acres in 2019 (4% increase)
  • Soybean acreage is decreasing from 89.2 million acres in 2018 to 84.6 million acres in 2019 (5% decrease)
  • Sunflower acreage is increasing from 1.3 million acres in 2018 to 1.35 million acres in 2019 (4% increase)

Soybean/Canola Oil Market Update

There has been little market movement after the USD report despite decline in soybean acres and there continues to be a stockpile from last year’s harvest.
Although the US/China talks continue, there has been no real resolution on the table.

South American production

Brazil: anticipated production to increase 9% over last year to 124 million tonnes
Argentina: anticipated production to increase 45% over last year to 55 million tonnes

Possible upside risks

  • Rising crude oil prices (puts pressure on soybean use in biodiesel)
  • Trade resolution between US/China
  • Delayed planting due to floods/excess moisture
  • Canola -  Canada’s spat with China continues which may influence crop planting decisions

Sugar Market Update

Brazil in midst of cane crushing season and there has been a return to good weather that has helped with the crush and both India and Thailand’s production is better than expected.  So why is the market flat?

  • Rising crude oil costs have kept sugar prices from tumbling
  • Sugarcane is used in ethanol production, and higher crude oil prices result in higher demand for alternative fuels

Expect a range of $0.12-$0.14 USD/lb in the next several months.